Our Predictions

Temperature

After collecting data from weather centers all around the world we have been able to look at the way in which temperature has increased over the past 50 years as well as the way in which carbon dioxide levels have increased. The results we have concluded are similar to those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

To begin with we collected data for four different cities all at approximately the same latitude. We then plotted average maximum temperature for each of the cities using 1950 as a base. As you can see from Figure 1.0 below the average maximum temperature has increased by around 1.2 degrees since the 1950's.

Although we can see that there is a period during which there is a slight cooling stage around the 1970's, the general trend of the graph is still an upward trend. Therefore we would expect an increase in temperature when doing a future prediction. Figure 2.0 below shows the kind of increase in temperature we could expect using a linear fit to Figure 1.0. As we can see, temperatures can be expected to increase by as much as a further 5 degrees by 2100.

To then check results for a different latitude, we collected data for Oxford, UK. Figure 3.0 below shows the temperature increase since 1850. Notice the steepness of the gradient since 1980 onwards, showing that temperatures are increased very suddenly over the last 25 years.

Carbon Dioxide

Many people believe that the changes in temperature and carbon dioxide levels are part of a cycle that has been occuring for hundreds of thousands of years. They are right in saying that carbon dioxide and temperature do increase and decrease cyclically, however it is the rate of change that we are seeing at the moment that is the most concerning. Temperatures are increasing much faster than they have ever increased previously.

Figure 4.0 below shows the levels are carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for the last 450 thousand years. As you can see there is a cyclic pattern to the levels of CO2 in the atmosphere, however, the red dot indiciates our current level of carbon dioxide, which is much higher than any part of the cycle previously.

These changes in climate are also causing other changes to our planet to also occur much faster than previously anticipated. Glaciers and icebergs are melting at an unprecidented rate. The rate at which the ocean is absorbing carbon has decreased more than expected. Once the ocean stops absorbing carbon altogether, it will begin to expel it with dire consequencs.

Figure 5.0 below shows the increase in level of atmospheric carbon dioxide since 1960. We can see there is a steady increase from approximately 315ppm in 1960 to 375ppm in 2006.

By fitting a cubic to Figure 5.0 below we can predict future trends of carbon dioxide levels. In Figure 6.0 below we can see that if something isn't done now, levels of carbon dioxide shall continue to increase dramatically, almost doubling by 2100.